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CALCULATING AND UNDERSTANDING TEXAS HOLDEM POT ODDS

STARTING HAND STRENGTH

The biggest mistake made by most card players is playing TOO MANY HANDS. For example, tell me if this thought has ever crossed your mind...
"It's worth calling the flop even though I have bad cards-- because who knows, I might catch three-of-a-kind... or two pair... or something really good!"
Every poker player has had this thought from time to time. Even the pros.
But the problem is, thinking like this will cause you to LOSE BIG TIME in the long run. And the reason is because of the ODDS. Even though you might make a "great hand" once in every twenty flops, those other nineteen hands will cause you to lose MORE than you won. For example, at a 10-man table pocket Aces has a hand rank of 100% and is GROUP 1. Pocket two's has a hand rank of 63.3%, which is in GROUP 7. (This is for hands to the river.)
But let's be honest... understanding how "good" those hands are is EASY. You don't need an odds calculator for that.

But let me ask you, which of THESE hands do you think has the highest "Hand Rank"?

a.) Queen-9 suited
b.) Ace-5 suited
c.) Jack-10 suited
d.) Ace-Queen offsuit

(Here's a hint... the strongest hand is NOT options "b" or "d"...)

Give up? Are you surprised that A-Q wasn't the strongest? Know the exact hand strength right away and make a more educated (translation = MORE ADVANTAGEOUS IN THE END) decision before the flop.

KNOW YOUR OUTS

As you probably know, "outs" are cards that will help you improve your existing hand.
For example, let's say you're holding 5-6 and the flop comes out 3-4-Q. That means you need either a two or a seven to make a straight...
Since there are four two's and four seven's in the deck, you have EIGHT OUTS.
For example, in the scenario above with the straight draw, let's say you ALSO had a spade flush draw. That means you have more than eight outs, since one more spade will help you.
Now, if I have 8 outs, here is the calculation of hitting one of my cards on the turn or river:
There are 47 cards left unseen (I'm holding 2, there are 3 on the board, 52-5= 47). 47 - 8 outs = 39.
My calculation becomes: 1 - 39/47 (turn) * 38/46 (46 cards unseen prior to river):
1 - 39/47 * 38/46 = 31.5%
I have a 31.5% chance to hit my hand over the turn and river.

# OF OUTS TURN+RIVER

# OF OUTS RIVER

1
2
3
4 (Inside straight draw)
5
6 (Two overs)
7
8 (Open ended straight draw)
9 (Flush draw)
10
11
12 (Flush draw + Gut shot)
13
14
15 (Straight Flush draw)
16
17
18

4.4
8.4
12.5
16.5
20.3
24.1
27.8
31.5
35.0
38.4
41.7
45.0
48.1
51.2
54.1
57.0
59.8
62.4

1
2
3
4 (Inside straight draw)
5
6 (Two overs)
7
8 (Open ended straight draw)
9 (Flush draw)
10
11
12 (Flush draw + Gut shot)
13
14
15 (Straight Flush draw)
16
17
18

2.2
4.3
6.5
8.7
10.9
13.0
15.2
17.4
19.6
21.7
23.9
26.1
28.3
30.4
32.6
34.8
37.0
39.1

If you don't like memorizing charts then there are some shortcuts that can be used. For example, if you have 1 to 9 outs and the turn and river cards are yet to be seen then you can multiply your outs times 4 to come within 1 percentage point of the true chances of hitting your card. This covers the inside straight draw(4 outs), 2 overs(6 outs), the open ended straight draw(8 outs) and the flush draw(9 outs).
For example, 2 overs is 6 outs multiplied by 4 is 24% which is your approximate chance of getting at least one of your overs. Memorize these figures (particularly the first chart), they will help you justify your calls. Now, the above scenarios were pretty simplified. There are other, more advanced, factors to potentially consider. For example, if you do not hit your card on the turn, can you assume Player1 will bet again and how much? If you know this information, this should also be included in your calculation of the bet vs. pot amounts.
Let's say you know Player1 will probably bet another $4 on the turn. So really, you are looking at calling $6.00 against a pot of $16.00. The percentage now is 37.5% (6/16) as opposed to our earlier example where it was 17%. In this case, the call isn't as clear and the current pot odds don't quite justify the call because 37.5% is greater than our 31.5%. However, there are implied odds to consider, and these odds may justify making this call.
This the last factor that is important to consider - implied odds. In the game of no-limit holdem, you potentially could win a much larger pot than the current pot you are calculating your odds against. If you do hit your hand, could you then bet the entire pot amount and assume Player1 will call? How much of a bankroll does Player1 have and is it possible to take it all on this hand? These are interesting questions and also can affect your decision. The total pot size at the very end of the hand, could easily justify making the call in the hopes of winning that pot. This is called "implied odds" and should also be considered.

Pot odds explained

A lot of the money to be made in poker comes from players who chase draws in small pots. Most of the time, draws do not come through, so the money spent on calls is lost. When a draw hits, there must be enough money in the pot to make up for all those times it didn't. Enter the concept of "pot odds."

The money in the pot must be greater than the odds of completing a draw.

# OF OUTS POT ODDS

2           23:1
3           17:1
4           11:1
5             9:1
6             8:1
7             7:1
8             5:1
9             4:1
10           7:2
11           3:1
12           3:1

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